November-16: RIMPL Completes SRA Roles in Successful Train Sets Tenders

From March to June 2016, RIMPL developed Schedule Risk Analyses (SRAs) for Downer EDI Rail, the lead partner in the Evolution Rail Consortium bidding for the Victorian Government's High Capacity Metro Train (HCMT) tender to build, own and operate 65 train sets (each 7 carriages) to run on the Melbourne metropolitan rail network. Other partners in the consortium are CRRC Changchun Railway Vehicles (the world's largest manufacturer of trains) and Plenary Group (a Canadian Public Private Partnership specialist well experienced in Australia in financial packaging of PPPs). RIMPL developed SRAs for the overall design, procurement, manufacture, local assembly, testing and handover of the 65 train sets and for the design and construction of a training and maintenance facility for the HCMT trains near Pakenham. Further revisions were made to the SRA modeling between August and October, in response to revised Government requirements.

In July 2016, RIMPL also developed at short notice for Downer EDI Rail an SRA model for the Sydney Growth Trains tender for the NSW Government. This involved the design, procurement, manufacture, assembly, testing and handover of 24 train sets, along with modifications to a maintenance facility.

Both tenders were successful, for which RIMPL congratulates Downer EDI Rail!


February-16: Senior Client Praise for RIMPL's collaborative modelling work

"... I'm extremely proud of what we accomplished and the impact that your work had. It was the key factor that put our business on track and established our reputation as an upstream business unit that could reliably deliver very very complex and challenging operations in one of the most challenging environments you'll ever find in upstream.

For me, this is one of the most successful collaborations I've been involved in and I'm glad you are able to use your experience with us to build your business. It's a fantastic service you deliver. Many thanks for being patient and flexible with us to adapt your approach so we could model our activity set."


December-15: Coal Seam Gas FEED Project

RIMPL were awarded a contract for the Integrated Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis (IRA) of an expansion of Santos' GLNG Upstream coal seam gas field wells, surface facilities and corresponding hub facilities for compression and gas treatment in the Wandoan area.

In a similar process to that described below for the Earlier Roma area project, RIMPL created an IRA model, facilitated risk workshop sessions with the project team to obtain input ranges for the IRA model integrating the schedule, the overlaid cost estimate and mapped-in risk events. The analysis was performed including probabilistic weather calendars based on historical Bureau of Meteorology rainfall data. The report included all required probabilistic schedule and cost forecasts and identified and ranked the drivers of cost and schedule uncertainty within the project, to enable optimising of project risk.


27-Nov-15: Appointment of RIMPL to Government Advisory Panels

After a tender process that began in April 2015, The Australian Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development (DIRD) has appointed RIMPL to two advisory panels related to the assessment of Cost Contingency.

The first panel is to review and assess when requested, cost contingency for infrastructure projects being proposed by states and territories for commonwealth funding. The second panel is to provide when requested, "Theory and Policy Advice on Contingency Estimation (Probabilistic/Quantitative Risk Analysis)".

The appointment runs until at least 30Jun18, with the option for DIRD to extend it for a further 2 years.


May-15: Oil & Gas Exploration Project

RIMPL performed an Integrated Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis (IRA) in April and May 2015 of an oil & gas exploration project to drill two wells in Papua New Guinea.

RIMPL conducted risk workshop sessions with the project team to assess the potential range of project capital cost and schedule outcomes including risk events and risk factors. The analysis was performed including major weather uncertainties governing flying hours for helicopters providing the only means of supply of equipment and materials to the drilling sites for two proposed wells. Scope included construction of the wellpads at each site, moving the drilling rig into each site and erecting the drill rig, drilling the wells and returning the disassembled drill rig back to its point of hire. The analysis included modelling logistics uncertainties to supply the materials and equipment in a timely way to the forward base for the helicopters.


March-15: Coal Seam Gas FEED Project

RIMPL were awarded a contract for the Integrated Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis (IRA) of an expansion of Santos' GLNG Upstream coal seam gas field wells, surface facilities and corresponding hub facilities for compression and gas treatment in the Roma area.

RIMPL created an IRA model from the project schedule, estimate and risk register. RIMPL facilitated risk workshop sessions with the project team to obtain input ranges of project capital cost line items and schedule task durations together with risk events. The analysis was performed including probabilistic weather calendars based on over a century of rainfall data. The report included all required probabilistic schedule and cost forecasts and identified and ranked the drivers of cost and schedule uncertainty within the project, to enable optimising of project risk.


29-Jan-15: Manufacturing Project

RIMPL has been awarded a contract for the Integrated Cost & Schedule risk analysis of a manufacturing project in Australia.

RIMPL has conducted risk workshop sessions with the project team to assess the potential range of project capital cost and schedule outcomes including risk events and risk factors. The analysis has been performed including weather uncertainties and the report has been submitted including all required probabilistic schedule and cost forecasts and identifying and ranking the drivers of cost and schedule uncertainty within the project.


10-Sep-14: Gas Condensates Project

RIMPL have been awarded a contract for the Integrated Cost & Schedule risk analysis of a gas condensates recovery project outside Australia.

RIMPL will work with the project team to assess the potential range of project capital cost and schedule outcomes, as well as the drivers of cost and schedule uncertainty within the project.


12-Sep-14: International Conferences

RIMPL's Managing Director, Colin Cropley, will be presenting at a range of local and international conferences between October and November.

Milan Conference 20-22Oct14: International Cost Engineering Council IX World Congress. Subject of paper: 'Re-engineering Project Budgeting and Management of Risk';

Bangkok Conference, 12-13Nov14: AACE's International Total Cost Management Conference. Subject of paper: 'Planning and Estimating Risky Projects: Oil and Gas Exploration';

Engineers Australia Convention 2014 Melbourne, 25-27Nov14 ' Mastering Complex Projects Conference. Subject of first paper: 'Developing and delivering complex projects using quantitative risk analysis'. Subject of second paper: 'Australian lessons for developing and delivering large and complex projects'

To find out more about any of Colin's presentations, please contact us at info@riskinteg.com


18-July-14: KnowledgeBase - Integrated Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis

The third instalment of RIMPL s Knowledge Base goes live! This instalment covers Integrated Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis, dealing specifically with the topics of:
Integrated Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis Basic Concepts
Integrated Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis Process

You can help contribute to the knowledge base by contributing your comments, experience and critiques of the methods described.


14-April-14: Latest Newsletter issued


featuring:

RIMPL's new Risk Consultant, David Ekhtiari

RIMPL's newly appointed WA Representative Peter Hudson and

A detailed article comparing Combined Schedule and Cost Risk Analyses with RIMPL's Integrated Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis (IRA)'


20-March-14: RIMPL EDUCATIONAL INITIATIVES

Risk Integration Management believes in providing useful information into the public domain on the underlying theory and practices of risk management and especially quantitative risk analysis. We do this in various ways, as described below.

Conferences:

RIMPL presented to the Project Management Institute's National Project Management conference PMOz in September 2013 on "Planning and Estimating Risky Projects: Oil & Gas Exploration in Papua New Guinea". The presentation described the use of Integrated Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis (IRA) to help an oil & gas explorer client improve the quality and realism of their planning and estimating. The client collaborated in the development of the presentation.

A paper based on the above work, co-authored with the client, has been accepted by the Association for Advancement of Cost Engineering International for their Annual Meeting in New Orleans in June 2014

and also for a Total Cost Management International Conference

organised by AACEI planned for November 2014 in Bangkok. The paper is titled "Planning and Estimating Risky Projects: Oil and Gas Exploration".

RIMPL has also submitted an abstract accepted by the World Congress of the International Cost Engineering Council,

on "Re-engineering Project Budgeting and Management of Risk" in Milan in October 2014. The paper sets out reasons why too many projects still fail to achieve their projected profitability targets or even to be completed within their budgeted time and cost and explains why IRA materially improves the likelihood of project success.

It goes on to explain how extending the modelling to include project operation and revenue generation, their associated uncertainties and risk events can enable probabilistic cash flows, NPVs and IRRs to be generated. Through this the balance between probabilistic profit, break-even and unacceptable loss can be measured and the drivers quantified for risk optimisation.

Contributions to Professional Forums:

RIMPL makes regular contributions through its Directors to Risk Management forums, engaging in discussion on issues relevant to RIMPL's areas of expertise and experience, particularly quantitative project risk analysis. These include:
Schedule and Cost Risk Analysis forum on LinkedIn;
Oracle Primavera Risk Analysis (Pertmaster) LinkedIn forum;
Oracle's Primavera Risk Analysis LinkedIn forum;
Monte Carlo Simulation and Risk Modelling LinkedIn forum

Lecturing and presenting to Professional Associations:

RIMPL's Managing Director has been guest lecturing on Project Management topics to diploma and masters degree students at Victoria University since 1992. Topics have included Project Planning, Delivering Quality Projects and Risk Management.

He has also guest lectured at Swinburne University and RMIT University on similar topics.

For the last two years, he has guest-lectured in Risk Management at the University of Canberra to a master's degree in Procurement.

RIMPL's Managing Director has presented to professional associations from time to time including:
•Melbourne Chapter of PMI
•Australian Cost Engineering Society of Engineers Australia;
•Australian Institute of Project Management Project Controls Specific Interest Group

RIMPL's Managing Director was Chairperson of the Victorian Primavera User Group (VPUG) between 1997 and 2009, when Oracle took over control of Primavera User Groups. VPUG was the only Australian Primavera User Group independent of the Primavera dealers for most of that time.


25-Sept-13: New Contract Awarded - Pre-feasiblilty study of mine process facility

RIMPL has been awarded a contract for the provision of integrated risk analysis services, analyzing the potential cost and schedule outcomes for the construction of a mine process facility.


7-Aug-13: New Contract Awarded - Risk Analysis of Infrastructure Investment Revenue Stream

RIMPL was recently awarded a contract to analyse the riskiness of a AAA rated infrastructure asset.

This has beeen done by assessing the probability of the operators of the asset being penalised for failing to achieve a range of required service standards, which would reduce or "abate" the revenue stream generated for investors.

Each of the service standards has a prescribed set of penalties. RIMPL has statistically analysed performance data for many of these standards to determine the probabilities and cost impact ranges.

Other penalties have required the gathering of expert opinions.

The Monte Carlo risk analyses have forecast levels of penalties ranging from likely (P50) through conservative (P95) to extremely conservative (P99), commensurate with the AAA rating of the investment.


24-May-13: KnowledgeBase - Schedule Risk Analysis

The second instalment of RIMPL s Knowledge Base goes live! This instalment covers Schedule Risk Analysis, dealing specifically with the topics of:
Schedule Risk Analysis Basic Concepts
Schedule Risk Analysis Process

You can help contribute to the knowledge base by contributing your comments, experience and critiques of the methods described.


19-Apr-13: New Contract awarded - SRA Training Services

RIMPL has been awarded a contract to provide schedule risk analysis (SRA) training services over the next year to a major Australian Construction, Mining & Services contractor. RIMPLs SRA methodology has been developed and refined over the last 10 years to be one of the most robust and effective available in Australia.

The training uses Oracle's Primavera Risk Analysis software, but teaches the process of SRA and how to produce realistic forecasts of project outcomes including allowance for schedule and logic uncertainty and risk events.


16-Apr-13: Knowledge Base goes live!

RIMPLs Knowledge Base goes live! Well be progressively releasing content relating to risk management & analysis, starting with instalment 1: Risk Management Basics. This release covers the broad topics of:
What is Risk Management?
Risk Management Process
Risk Analysis
Risk Attributes

You can help contribute to the knowledge base by joining us on the associated discussion threads.


05-Apr-13: New Contract awarded - Analysis of FEED Projects

RIMPL has been awarded a contract to conduct a series of integrated cost and schedule risk analyses over the next year on a major CSG project in Australia. The analyses focus on the delivery of various component packages of Upstream facilities relating to the project as they emerge from the FEED process.


25-Mar-13: New Contract awarded - Hydrocarbon Exploration

RIMPL has been awarded a contract to conduct a series of integrated cost and schedule risk analyses relating to hydrocarbon exploration in Papua New Guinea. The analyses are focused on seismic survey, well-site construction and drilling, taking into account all known sources of uncertainty and risk events. The exploration work occurs in an environment of high uncertainty and cost, with very adverse weather conditions for much of the year and the need to use helicopters for all site transport. Previous work by the RIMPL team for the same client has forecast much more realistic outcomes than deterministic planning and budgeting.


21-Mar-13: New Contract awarded - Construction Tender

RIMPL has been awarded a contract by a major Australian construction company to conduct quantitative risk analysis on a tender for the construction of an LNG Plant in Australia.


16-Mar-13: Announcing Launch of Risk Integration Management Pty Ltd

We are pleased to announce the launch of an innovative risk management and project controls services business, Risk Integration Management Pty Ltd (RIMPL).

RIMPL provides risk management and analysis consulting services as well as skilled project controls and strategic project advisory services and personnel.

RIMPL continues services formerly provided by Crescent PSS Pty Ltd (1996-2008) and Hyder Project Management Group (2008-2012).

Risk Management Services

RIMPL specialises in advanced risk management and analysis, integrating qualitative and quantitative risk analyses for cost and schedule contingency forecasting using Monte Carlo simulation. RIMPLs proprietary Integrated Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis (IRA) methodology and software uniquely provide the means of quantifying project time and cost uncertainty and identifying and ranking the drivers of these uncertainties. They have been used on some of the biggest projects in Australia and are available to clients, large or small, whether project owners or contractors, immediately.

Project Controls consulting services and personnel

RIMPL through its subsidiary business Contract Project Services (CPS) provides a wide range of skilled and experienced project services personnel and advisory services.

We specialise in planning / scheduling and cost control in the resources, oil & gas and engineering construction sectors. We offer skilled senior project advisory services in project and contract management strategy, forensic scheduling, claim management and contract formation and administration.